Weather Scoring Systems

Understanding the DOS and WIS Algorithms

📊 What is the Daily Outlook Score?

The Daily Outlook Score (DOS) is an internal weather forecasting algorithm developed by Ryan Hall, specifically for use within the Ryan Hall, Y'all organization. Think of it as a "weather importance thermometer" - it measures how significant weather events will be over the next seven days across the United States.

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Important Note: The Daily Outlook Score is primarily an internal tool used by the Ryan Hall, Y'all team to determine plans around videos, live streams, forecasts, and potential relief missions with the Y'all Squad non-profit. While the public may find it interesting to follow along, any personal decisions based on DOS should be made at your own discretion. Always consult official local weather forecasts and warnings for your area.

📈 How to Read the DOS

Each day gets its own DOS value, typically ranging from 0 to 200:

0-30
Mostly Quiet - Weather day ahead (anything above 20 can have surprise weather events somewhere in the country, but localized)
30-60
Some Activity - Possible (sometimes even intense weather in a small or rural area will only lead to a score this high)
60-90
Worth Watching - RHY team usually standing by for a live stream
90-120
Significant Weather - RHY team usually in full blown live stream mode
120-150
Major Event - Expected
150-200
Extreme Weather - On the way
200+
Potentially Historic - Event forecast

đŸŽ¯ What Makes the DOS Go Up?

The DOS increases when forecasts show significant weather threats. Here's what the algorithm considers:

🌀 Tropical Weather (Hurricanes)

  • Storm Intensity: Higher wind speeds = higher scores
  • Distance to US: Closer storms weighted more heavily
  • Population Impact: More people in path = higher score
  • Formation Probability: Higher chances increase score

⛈ī¸ Severe Weather

  • Risk Categories: Higher SPC outlooks = higher scores
  • Significant Severe: "Hatched" areas multiply scores
  • Population Affected: Urban areas increase scores
  • Multiple Hazards: Overlapping threats compound

❄ī¸ Winter Weather

  • Impact Categories: More severe impacts = higher scores
  • Geographic Factors: Southern/Eastern US scores higher
  • Forecast Confidence: Higher probability = more points
  • Area Coverage: Widespread events score exponentially

🔗 How Threats Combine

  • DOS takes the highest single threat as primary driver
  • Secondary threats add smaller contributions
  • Multiple major threats can push scores to extreme territory (150+)
  • Timing affects weight (Day 1 full weight, Days 4-7 reduced)

📅 Real-World Examples

Quiet Day (DOS: 0-30)
  • Isolated thunderstorms in rural areas
  • Minor winter weather in well-prepared mountain regions
  • Tropical wave 2000+ miles from US coast
  • General thunderstorms affecting less than 1 million people
Worth Watching (DOS: 60-90)
  • Enhanced Risk severe weather approaching major metro area
  • Category 1 hurricane 1000-1500 miles from US coast
  • Major winter storm impacting multiple northern states
  • Tropical disturbance with high formation chance near Caribbean
Major Event Coming (DOS: 120-150)
  • High Risk severe weather day (rare but extremely dangerous)
  • Major hurricane (Cat 3+) with US landfall likely within 3 days
  • Extreme winter impacts forecast for major Eastern cities
  • Category 4-5 hurricane approaching populated coastline
Historic Potential (DOS: 200+)
  • Category 5 hurricane approaching major city (Miami, Houston, New Orleans)
  • Historic tornado outbreak rivaling 2011 or 1974 events
  • Catastrophic ice storm for unprepared Southern cities
  • Perfect storm scenario with compounding extreme threats

💡 Key Takeaways

  • DOS acts as a "weather importance thermometer" for the entire United States
  • Scores above 60 typically mean the RHY team is preparing for active coverage
  • Multiple factors drive scores: storm intensity, population impact, distance, and forecast confidence
  • The same weather system can score differently based on location
  • Higher scores indicate more resources dedicated to coverage and potential Y'all Squad relief missions
  • Updates every 5 minutes as new forecast data arrives
  • Days 1-3 are most accurate; Days 4-7 show trends

⚡ What is the Weather Intensity Score?

The Weather Intensity Score (WIS) is an internal real-time weather monitoring algorithm developed by Ryan Hall, specifically for use within the Ryan Hall, Y'all organization. Think of it as a "weather intensity thermometer" that measures how severe and impactful weather is across the United States RIGHT NOW, at this very minute.

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Critical Understanding: WIS is a NATIONAL view of weather intensity. A single tornado warning in a rural area might only generate a score of 10-20, even though that tornado could be life-threatening for those in its path. Never use WIS for local or mesoscale weather decisions - always check your local warnings and radar.

📊 How to Read the WIS

The WIS typically ranges from 0 to 150, with higher numbers indicating more severe weather:

0-30
Mostly Quiet - Weather across the country - minimal RHY team activity
30-50
Some Activity - Happening - team monitoring closely
50-70
Notable Weather - RHY team starts paying close attention, standby mode likely
70-100
Significant Events - Developing - team often going live
100-150
Multiple Areas Impacted - Full team coverage mode
150-250
Major Outbreak - Ongoing - all hands on deck
250-350
Extreme Event - In progress - continuous live coverage
350+
Potentially Historic - Event (scores above 500 have occurred)

📈 What Makes the WIS Go Up?

🚨 Severe Weather Warnings

  • Tornado warnings have the biggest impact
  • Severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging winds/hail
  • Winter storm warnings during blizzards
  • Hurricane/tropical warnings for coastal areas
  • Flash flood warnings in urban areas

đŸ‘Ĩ Population Impact

A tornado warning's impact varies dramatically by population:

  • Very rural (under 5K): Adds 5-10 points
  • Small town (15-50K): Adds 10-20 points
  • Mid-size city (250K): Adds 15-30 points
  • Major metro (1M+): Adds 20-45+ points

đŸŽĨ Real-Time Verification

  • Storm chasers streaming live tornadoes
  • Traffic cameras showing severe conditions
  • Weather cameras capturing ongoing events
  • Confirmed tornadoes on the ground

📱 Public Interest

  • Millions watching weather coverage online
  • Social media engagement spikes
  • Emergency declarations issued
  • National attention warranted

⏱ī¸ Real-Time Examples

Some Activity (30-50)
  • A few severe thunderstorm warnings scattered across states
  • Perhaps 2-3 tornado warnings in rural areas
  • Minor winter weather advisories
  • Example: 3 tornado warnings in rural Oklahoma might score 40
Significant Events (70-100)
  • Multiple tornado warnings across several states
  • Severe weather ramping up regionally
  • Major winter storm beginning to impact cities
  • Population centers starting to be affected
Major Outbreak (150-250)
  • Numerous tornado warnings across a large region
  • Confirmed tornadoes on the ground in multiple states
  • Major cities under threat
  • Significant damage occurring
Historic Event (350+)
  • March 14, 2025 outbreak (score exceeded 500)
  • Multiple violent tornadoes in major cities simultaneously
  • Generational weather disaster
  • National emergency level event

🔄 Update Frequency

The Weather Intensity Score updates every minute, providing near real-time information about current weather conditions across the country. This rapid update cycle allows the RHY team to respond quickly to developing weather situations.

Data Sources

  • Official government weather warnings (NOAA/National Weather Service)
  • Live camera feeds showing actual conditions
  • Public engagement with weather information

🔄 DOS vs WIS: Understanding the Difference

📅 Daily Outlook Score (DOS)

  • Purpose: Forecast the next 7 days
  • Updates: Every 5 minutes
  • Range: Typically 0-200
  • Focus: What's coming
  • Use: Planning coverage & resources
  • Best for: Understanding the week ahead

⚡ Weather Intensity Score (WIS)

  • Purpose: Real-time monitoring
  • Updates: Every minute
  • Range: Typically 0-150 (can exceed 500)
  • Focus: What's happening NOW
  • Use: Immediate coverage decisions
  • Best for: Current weather severity

📋 How the RHY Team Uses These Scores

Daily Operations Flow

  1. Morning Check: Review DOS for the week ahead
  2. Resource Planning: Allocate team based on DOS predictions
  3. Real-Time Monitoring: Watch WIS throughout the day
  4. Go-Live Decisions: WIS scores trigger immediate action
  5. Coverage Intensity: Higher scores = more team members

Decision Thresholds

DOS Thresholds

  • 60+: Team on standby
  • 90+: Full live stream mode
  • 120+: Major event preparation
  • Video Probability: Guides content creation

WIS Thresholds

  • 50+: Close monitoring begins
  • 70+: Often triggers live coverage
  • 100+: Full team engagement
  • 150+: All hands on deck

👁ī¸ For Public Viewers

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Remember: Both scores are internal tools designed for RHY team operations. While interesting to follow, they should never replace official weather warnings or local forecasts for your safety decisions.

Best Ways to Use These Scores

  • DOS: See when significant weather is expected this week
  • DOS: Understand why RHY is planning coverage for certain days
  • WIS: Know when RHY might be live RIGHT NOW
  • WIS: Follow along with real-time weather developments
  • Both: Gain insight into national weather patterns

What These Scores DON'T Tell You

  • Your specific local weather conditions
  • Whether you should take shelter
  • Exact timing for your location
  • Personal safety decisions
Example Scenario

Morning: DOS shows 95 for tomorrow - RHY team prepares for significant weather

Next Day: WIS jumps to 85 as severe weather develops - team goes live

Your Action: Check your LOCAL forecast and warnings, not these national scores

đŸŽ¯ The Bottom Line

DOS Summary

A 7-day forecast tool that helps RHY plan coverage, allocate resources, and prepare for significant weather events before they happen.

WIS Summary

A real-time monitoring tool that tells RHY when to go live, how many team members to engage, and where weather is most impactful right now.

Together, DOS and WIS form a comprehensive weather monitoring system that guides the Ryan Hall, Y'all team's operations from planning to execution.